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Jag läste just att det under 2006 dödades 645 människor på de tyska motorvägarna. Det tyska motorvägsnätet omfattar 1204 mil och det svenska 151 mil. Om man tar hänsyn till att det tyska motorvägsnätets längd skulle detta omsatt till svenska tal betyda 81 dödade på det svenska motorvägsnätet. Samtidigt sväljer det tyska motorvägsnätet ungefär 2,76 gånger mer trafik i förhållande till sin längd. Tar man hänsyn till detta betyder detta att talet 81 skall skrivas ned till 29. Det brukar dödas ungefär 30 personer per år på svenska motorvägar, vilket bekräftar bilden som getts i en tysk studie enligt vilken olycksfrekvensen var likvärdig på sträckor med och utan hastighetsbegränsning.
Visserligen får man något fler upphinnandeolyckor, men i övrigt minskar olyckorna, främst insomningsolyckorna. Denna vinst skulle förmodligen vara betydligt större i Sverige med tanke på att svenska motorvägar är så lågt trafikerade att det krävs högre fart för att upprätthålla en viss nivå av positiv stress än vad som krävs på kontinentens ofta hårt trafikerade motorvägar.
Jag håller med om att mitträckena i Sverige inte är avpassade för höga farter, men trots detta skulle förmodligen en omedelbar effekt av en slopad hastighetsbegränsning utan några kompenserande åtgärder vara att antalet dödsolyckor skulle minska.
Man frågar sig hur Gunnar Carlsson kan påstå att en höjning av hastighetsbegräsningen på motorväg till 130 km/h skulle medföra ökad trafikdöd, när tyska motorvägar utan hastighetsbegränsning är lika olycksfattiga som svenska.
Det handlar troligen inte om det, utan det handlar nog om att Gunnar Carlsson är anhängare av en politisk ideologi vars främsta ledstjärna är att förbjuda allt som är kul.
Uppdatering: Jag såg just att det svenska motorvägsnätet vuxit något, men detta torde inte medföra att beräkningarna kullkastas. Jag är osäker på om det byggs särskilt mycket motorväg i Tyskland numera, men det verkar sannolikt att det svenska motorvägsnätet växer snabbare räknat i procent.
posted by Flavian @ 12:56 PM
17 comments
17 Comments:
Detta är en del av ett svar fick jag av en gubbe på NTF när jag kritiserade hastighetsfixeringen (skrev några av mina hastighetsrekord därav snacket om att man skryter):
"Om det skulle vara ok att bete sig som du skryter om så skulle det bli kaos och anatalet döda skulle snabbt rasa i höjden. Det tydligaste beviset fördetta är situationen på de tyska motorvägarna där farten är fri. På de delar där farten fortfarande är fri dödas många fler människor än på de där man inför hastighetsbegränsning eller på våra motorvägar i Sverige. På de vägar som övervakas med kamera har man enkelt kunnat visa att hastigheten minskat och att 75 personer färre har dödats på dessa sträckor. Efter att ha gått igenom 98 olika studier från hela världen där man räknat olyckor efter att ha minskat eller ökat hastigheten på vägar finns det inte längre någon diskussion om detta. Om hastigheten ökar så ökar antalet olyckor, skadade och dödade. Om den minskar så minskar de imotsvarande grad. Sen kan man tycka (som du gör tror jag) att man är så duktig att man faktiskt klarar att köra fort. Men det är barasjälvbedrägeri. Man kan tycka att det gått bra hittills så det går nog bra även i fortsättningen. Men man skall betänka att i stort sett alla föraresom råkar ut för en allvarlig olycka har sådana erfarenheter, dvs att det gått bra fram tills dess."
Naturligtvis slutade han svara efter några mail när argumenten to slut - det sista svaret när jag skrev att dom fortfarande inte bevisat vad som ORSAKAR olyckorna (att smällen blir värre ju fortare det går, vet vi ju redan):
"Orsaken till att hastighet inte bara orsakar svårare skador utan också ökar sannolikheten för olyckor är att stoppsträckan blir mycket längre i högre hastigheter, att det är svårare för en normalbilist utan expertkunskaper att kontrollera bilens rörelser i en krissituation i högre farter och att man inte hinner bena ut krångliga händelser lika snabbt."
Oj, stoppsträckan blir längre i högre fart det visste vi inte. Då är nästa fråga - varför inträffar en krissituation? - denna kan ju nästan ses som ett redan påbörjat olycksförlopp (trafiksäkerhetsarbetet borde utgå från att förhindra att det inträffar).
Kommer osökt att tänka på en låtfras när jag läser denna blogg
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